Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
